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The United States has – or, more specifically, will have, on January 20th – a new President. Republican Donald Trump returns for a second (non-consecutive) term after beating Democrat Kamala Harris in the November 5th election.

A recent article from the Wall Street Journal suggests that private equity bigwigs have spent $231m on political donations in the recent presidential election campaign, close to the record set in 2020. So, for this month, we decided to take a look at a range of data points across the private equity corner of the private funds industry during the Joe Biden administration to see how it is faring.

There is, of course, an elephant in the room – the Covid-19 pandemic. The impact of the initial wave of lockdowns on the population was significant. In the private funds industry, like many others, private equity management companies and their service providers had to quickly transition to a working from home environment, which impacted fundraising and deal making. The second half of 2020 and into 2021 was frenetic, as many firms were trying to catch-up from the lulls in activity in the first half of 2020, so it is arguable that the playing field was a little different in the early years of the current administration than in previous ones.

Still, analyzing the data is interesting – at least, to us - and we decided to start with the number of new private equity funds filed using Form D. Table 1 below shows the data, with 2022 being a remarkable outlier - more than twice as many new funds were filed when compared with 2021, indeed.

What will be interesting is to see how the final quarter of this year turns out. If October, November and December deliver numbers similar to the past couple of years, then 2024 will end up with more new funds than last year, but a much lower gross asset value. Bulls will point to the growth in the number of funds generally, bears will point to the declining GAV.

Table 1: New Private Equity Fund Filings, January 2020 – October 2024, by Year

*2024 data is from January 1 through October 31

But it’s not just the private equity types that have been active in this election cycle. Famed hedge fund manager Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital added his voice to the cacophony, frequently appearing on X to offer his views.

Table 2: New Hedge Fund Filings, January 2020 – October 2024, by Year

*2024 data is from January 1 through October 31

The hedge fund space follows a roughly similar trend to their private equity cousins, albeit with subtle differences. 2024 has already delivered an increase in terms of the number of new funds filed when compared with 2023, with an entire quarter’s worth of filings still to be tallied and added.

The eagle-eyed among you will also notice a striking similarity in the average size of fund filed. For both the private equity and the hedge fund market, the trend of the size of the aggregate gross asset value continues to fall; the average size hedge fund launched in 2024 is just $105m, down from $658m in 2021, and for private equity, it is just $55m, down from $243m three years ago.

Does any of this have anything to do with the sitting President? Probably not. Interest rates have had the biggest impact on the private funds market in the past few years, primarily in terms of fundraising, but also in terms of deal activity in markets such as private equity, real estate and venture capital.

 And now, they’re on the way down. In September, the US Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis points. On November 7^th, it cut them again by 25 bps, with the range now being 4.5% to 4.75% after being 5.25% - 5.50% as recently as August. Some think they will go even lower in December. Suddenly, liquid fixed income will look much less appealing, and alternative investments will benefit from rebalancing by investors.

Added to that, we have not published returns / IRR data here. It’s obviously way too early for the private equity funds, and 9AT does not collect returns data from hedge funds.

But what we do think is interesting is if, and how, the data above will change in the next four years (and beyond). The average size can only go so low, for example. And we would expect to see an increase in the number of new funds and the overall GAV over time, given the general upwards trajectory in demand for alternative investments.

Time will tell!

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